Statistical presentation

Data description

Each year in February, Statistics Denmark delivers a vast volume of data to DREAM regarding immigration, emigration, liveborn children, deaths, population and change of citizenship, which can be disaggregated by sex, age and ancestry group. DREAM runs the actual projection model.

Statistics Denmark and DREAM regularly discuss the model assumptions regarding immigration, fertility and mortality to assess whether changes should be made in the projection model. Once the model for the whole country is declared ready, Statistics Denmark receives data from DREAM. The received data is the statistical basis of the release of the country projection as well as essential background data for the regional projections run by Statistics Denmark.

The population projection for the whole country can be disaggregated by sex (men and women), age (all individual ages from 0 to 109 years), ancestry (Danish origin, immigrants, descendants) and origin (Denmark, Western countries, non-Western countries) as well as year (2024-2070).

The year 2024 covers actual population as per 1 January 2024 The years 2025-2070 are projection years that also refer to 1 January of the year.

The population projection for provinces can be disaggregated by sex (men and women), age, (individual ages from 0 to 99 years as well as 100+, provinces (11 groups) and year (2024-2050).

The population projection for municipalities can be disaggregated by sex (men and women), age, (individual ages from 0 to 99 years and 100+, municipalities (98 groups) and year (2024-2050).

In 2015, Statistics Denmark initiated a thorough review of the population projection at municipal and regional level. As a result of this work, a number of adjustments have been made of the basis for the municipal population projection. These adjustments will result in a better projection of the demographic development at municipal level. For further information, see the subject page on population projection.

Classification system

The projections can be shown for the whole of Denmark or broken down geographically by regions (5), provinces (11) and municipalities (98). The correlation between the different geographical areas is available on the classification page for Regions, provinces and municipalities.

Sector coverage

Not relevant for these statistics.

Statistical concepts and definitions

Immigration: In the projection, immigration includes only persons who come to Denmark during a year and who are in the population by the end of the year.

Emigration: In the projection, emigration includes only persons who emigrate from Denmark during a year and who have not returned to Denmark by the end of the year.

Ancestry: Breaks down the population in persons of Danish origin, immigrants and descendants. A person is of Danish origin if he or she has at least one parent who is both born in Denmark and has Danish citizenship. Neither immigrants nor descendants have that. The difference between the two is that descendants are born in Denmark, whereas immigrants are born abroad.

Country of origin: The projection can show the categories Denmark, Western countries and non-Western countries. Western countries include all 27 EU countries as well as Andorra, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Norway, San Marino, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the Vatican City State, Canada, USA, Australia and New Zealand. Non-Western countries include all other countries.

Statistical unit

Persons.

Statistical population

The population in Denmark as at 1 January of all projection years.

Reference area

There are three projections covering the whole of Denmark, the 11 provinces and the 98 municipalities respectively..

Time coverage

A new projection is made each year. Each projection is a new set of statistics.

Base period

The actual population as at 1 January 2024 is the baseline of the projections.

Unit of measure

Persons.

Reference period

The reference period of the 2024 projection is all years from 2024-2070. To assess the size of the population for each year, the reference date is 1 January, whereas liveborn children, deaths, immigrants and emigrants concern changes throughout the year.

Frequency of dissemination

Annual.

Legal acts and other agreements

Population data is used as historical data for the projections. Population data is based on data extractions from the Danish Civil Registration System, which may be used for statistical purposes according to section 6 of Act on Statistics Denmark (see consolidating act no. 599 of 22 June 2000).

Cost and burden

The statistics are based on administrative registers. This means that there is no direct reporting task involved in the compilation of these statistics.

Comment

See more at [DREAM's]((https://dreamgruppen.dk/) or the subject page on population projections website.