Statistical presentation

Data description

The monthly tendency survey provides a quick and up-to-date overview of actual conditions and expectations within the retail trade. Statistics Denmark took over the Retail trade tendency survey in May 2011. The survey is directly connected to and defined by the Business and Consumer Survey joint harmonized programme as managed by the Directorate-Generale for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission. Within same programme is also carried out monthly tendency surveys on Manufacturing Industries, Construction, Services and Consumer expectations as well as the biannual survey on Manufacturing Industry Investments.

The Tendency survey provides information about actual conditions and expectations within the Retail trade business. The survey is a qualitative assessment on developments over the past three months and expected developments over the next three month, based on the variables sales, employment, sales prices, orders placed by supplier and current stock.

The questionnaire is divided in three sections.

• In first section is asked about the development over the past 3 month regarding the four indicators sales, employment, sales prices, orders placed by supplier. It is possible to tick mark one of three options, either decrease/deteriorate; unchanged or increase/improve.
• In second section is asked similar questions about expected development over the next three month regarding the same four indicators.
• In third section is asked about current stock at the beginning of the reference month, and it is possible to tick mark either too small; adequate; too big - or no stock.

Classification system

The industries in the survey are defined by DB07 , which is the Danish industrial classification system similar to the international NACE rev. 2 system.

Sector coverage

The survey covers the Retail Trade including wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles. Please refer to Source data.

Statistical concepts and definitions

Retail Trade: Industries in the business sector dealing with direct sales of goods to private consumers, either from shops or via internet or mail order. The Retail Trade Survey also includes wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles.

Confidence Indicator: An indicator for the present position in the business cycle. The marked economy evolves in cycles between boom, decrease, recession and upswing.

Business Tendency Survey: Business Tendency Survey or Business Survey. Compared to traditional statistical surveys, which only cover one or a few related variables from one area of the economy, business surveys collect information about a wide range of variables selected for their ability, when analysed together, to give an overall picture of a sector of the economy. The surveys include questions such as the volume of production, order books, order inflow, stocks of finished goods, exports, employment and prices. The range of information covered by business surveys also goes beyond variables normally captured by classical statistics. Qualitative information may be collected for variables, which are difficult or impossible to measure by conventional methods such as: capacity utilisation, production bottlenecks and views on the overall economic situation.

Composite Confidence Indicator: Composite indicators are calculated as the simple arithmetic average of the (seasonally adjusted if possible) balances of answers to specific questions chosen from the full set of questions in the survey. In the case of Retail Trade survey the composite indicator reflects the average of the three indicators on Sales over the past three month, the present Volume of stock and Sales expectations over the next three months.

Balance: Balances are the difference between positive and negative answering options, measured as percentage points of total answers. In particular, if a question has three alternative options, “positive” (“up”, “more”, “more than sufficient”, “good”, “too large”, “increase”, “improve”, etc.), “neutral” (“unchanged”, “as much”, “sufficient”, “satisfactory”, “adequate”, etc.) and “negative” (“down”, “less”, “not sufficient”, “too small”, “decline”, etc.), and if P, E and M (with P+E+M=100) denote the percentages of respondents having chosen respectively the option positive, neutral, and negative, the balance is calculated as B = P − M.

Statistical unit

The units in the survey are enterprises defined by legal unit, which is identified by "CVR-number" from the Central Business Register.

Statistical population

The universe population includes trades 45 and 47 in the Danish classification system DB07, almost identical to the international NACE rev. 2 system. The target population consists of 4650 enterprises, and covers all business in the selected trades with 5 or more employees.

Reference area

Denmark.

Time coverage

The survey has been conducted by Statistics Denmark since May 2011; However survey data for Denmark further back in history, processed by a different supplier, is available at DG ECFIN.

Base period

Not relevant for these statistics.

Unit of measure

Percentages and Balances.

Reference period

The reference point is the first day of the survey month. Questions are asked concerning the past three month and the coming three month.

Frequency of dissemination

The survey is published monthly - the second last working day. However results of the December survey is first published in the beginning of January.

Legal acts and other agreements

The survey is voluntary, and therefore not subject to any Danish legal act.

The survey is conducted according to agreement with the EU Commission. The legal framework of the survey is "The Joint Harmonized European Union Programme on Business and Consumer Surveys" approved by the European Commission on 12 July 2006 COM (206)379.

Cost and burden

The survey is voluntary, therefore no burden as such. If one decides to participate the questionnaire is supposed to only take a minute to complete.

Enterprises with 4 or less employees are not included in the survey sample.

Joint reporting is accepted if same organization includes several companies representing unique legal units, but within same industry-class. This can e.g. be the case with chain of shops.

Comment

Information about the statistics here. The statistics is part of the The Joint EC Business and Consumer Surveys programme managed by Directorate-Generale for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) please refer to their Guidelines.