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Accuracy and reliability

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Food Industries, Business Statistics
Simone Thun
+45 51 36 92 51

sit@dst.dk

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Prices and price index for agriculture

On some products, i.e. horticultural products, qualities and types are several and dynamic. It makes it a little difficult to be sure on the representatively on the prices followed. Concerning input prices based on general price statistics, the situation in agriculture are maybe not fully reflected. Some indices on volumes are indirectly measured based on values and price indices. This method can lead to inaccuracy. The declaration on content on Economic Account for Agriculture and these on animal production includes more information on possible inaccuracy. Because of the very different picture of sources, margins of statistical errors can not be calculated. However, for main output products, i.e. milk and meat, the coverage and accuracy are close to 100 per cent. Prices on cereals and feeding stuff (concentrates) are based on more that 70 per cent of total volume, which ensure high reliability. In general, the accuracy is highest on sales product and less high on intermediate consumption and goods for capital formation.

Overall accuracy

The overall accuracy is considered to be high, in particular on main products and inputs.

Sampling error

Where possible, complete information is obtained for a product, such as seed companies' purchase of agricultural seed harvest or dairy purchase of milk from farmers. In a number of other cases, a representative range of agents and individual products is used.

For example, sales prices for cereals are based on information broken down into cereals from the largest cereal and feed companies, which cover more than 70 per cent. of the turnover, while, for example, vegetable price indices are based on reports from the largest wholesalers about their payment to the growers for the most important vegetables.

The methods chosen were chosen on the basis of statistical certainty, materiality, and the possibility of data collection as well as the desire for a low respondent burden by reporting to Statistics Denmark.

Non-sampling error

The indices are not fully comparable over a long period of time (development consistent), except for indices for homogeneous individual products. Comparability is affected by the fact that the weight basis for the comparison of indexes of sales products and consumption in production changes in connection with the re-assessment every five years.

The uncertainty of the index over many years will increase with the number of years elucidated, as there are continuous changes in weight basis (in the case of rebates) and in the qualitative properties of products. The quality factor is not least important for investment indices, as technological development means new products that differ significantly from previous ones. But even some items, e.g. plant protection products, can have major quality changes.

The starting point of the weight basis can change significantly, which can cause distortions. In the base year there may be goods that change a lot afterwards. For example, mink skins had a high price in 2015, and at the same time there was a large production, ie. the weight became high. Since then the price has fallen extremely and it has also affected production.

Production within the simple range can also change extremely. For example, pig production, where the number of pigs slaughtered in relation to exported piglets has changed greatly.

It may happen that a product changes characteristics during the period between rebates, but otherwise must be considered to be the same product. If it is possible to find a basis for calculating the quality-related shift in price, this is corrected.

The index calculation assumes reported information for all individual products for all months of sales and purchases. This condition will not always be met. In some cases, information is delayed, in others it fails to get the information.

The specific handling of data deficiencies is done by one of the following solutions, with a priority in the order: • Months where experience is often not data are not included in the calculations. • A company that has not provided data is excluded from the calculation during that period. • An average of the previous and following month is used. • A price or quantity based on a professional estimate is used based on historical knowledge.

Applied replacement information will be updated with the relevant data if it arrives at a later date.

Quality management

Statistics Denmark follows the recommendations on organisation and management of quality given in the Code of Practice for European Statistics (CoP) and the implementation guidelines given in the Quality Assurance Framework of the European Statistical System (QAF). A Working Group on Quality and a central quality assurance function have been established to continuously carry through control of products and processes.

Quality assurance

Statistics Denmark follows the principles in the Code of Practice for European Statistics (CoP) and uses the Quality Assurance Framework of the European Statistical System (QAF) for the implementation of the principles. This involves continuous decentralized and central control of products and processes based on documentation following international standards. The central quality assurance function reports to the Working Group on Quality. Reports include suggestions for improvement that are assessed, decided and subsequently implemented.

Quality assessment

The overall accuracy is described as good, especially for products with great importance. For some products, such as horticultural products, there is a very wide range of grades and product types, which can make it difficult to ensure price indices agree continuous representation. For the production factors which price is based on the general price statistics, there may be special circumstances relating to agriculture, which is not reflected. Some volume for the use of indices to gross agricultural factor income is calculated indirectly using the value development and price index, which does not give a completely accurate result.

Data revision - policy

Statistics Denmark revises published figures in accordance with the Revision Policy for Statistics Denmark. The common procedures and principles of the Revision Policy are for some statistics supplemented by a specific revision practice.

Data revision practice

In connection with the rebate every five years, the list of individual products is reviewed to ensure that there is a broad coverage of a product price. Here, the range will typically be replaced, so that only individual products of relatively high importance appear. This usually means that only a few individual products will be discontinued before the next rebase.