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Accuracy and reliability

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Government finance statistics, Economic statistics
Martin Rune Rasmussen
+45 24 77 42 71

mra@dst.dk

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Government Finance Statistics

Misclassification due to insufficient information about the contents of a given account can occur. In provisional accounts, the government's value added tax expenses are divided at the level of accounting items. Ii all versions in t+1 provisional tax-estimates are used. Subsidy accounts can be classified with some inaccuracy because it is not always possible to define the recipient of the subsidy. Reserves and budgets adjustments: This extra paragraph covers both earmarked and widely defined reserves. The widely defined reserves are often considerable amounts and are difficult to define. Whenever possible, Statistics Denmark collects supplementary information on these reserves. An estimation of tax revenue charged by General Government is used.

Overall accuracy

The overall accuracy is considered to be relatively good, because the statistic is based on accounting data.

First of all the statistic is based on many different accounting data and primary statistics. Second of all the comparability with other statistics is contributing with a reduction in inaccuracy. Finally an ongoing balancing of the numbers to the annual government finance is performed. Inaccuracy and errors in the accounting data and primary statistics affect the reliability of the statistic.

Sampling error

The sampling error is zero because the data collection covers all sub sectors.

Non-sampling error

The statistic covers the entire target population. The central government account is received from Agency for Public Finance and Management (Økonomistyrelsen). All municipalities and regions must report their accounts, and missing accounts are thus not permitted. As the accounts are delivered directly from the municipalities and regions' own financial management systems and compared with data from prior years as well as the budget, it is assumed that no major measurement errors exist. If there are blank or invalid variables or dataset, the municipality or region is contacted so new data may be sent.

Quality management

Statistics Denmark follows the recommendations on organisation and management of quality given in the Code of Practice for European Statistics (CoP) and the implementation guidelines given in the Quality Assurance Framework of the European Statistical System (QAF). A Working Group on Quality and a central quality assurance function have been established to continuously carry through control of products and processes.

Quality assurance

Statistics Denmark follows the principles in the Code of Practice for European Statistics (CoP) and uses the Quality Assurance Framework of the European Statistical System (QAF) for the implementation of the principles. This involves continuous decentralized and central control of products and processes based on documentation following international standards. The central quality assurance function reports to the Working Group on Quality. Reports include suggestions for improvement that are assessed, decided and subsequently implemented.

Quality assessment

Misclassification due to insufficient information about the contents of a given account. In provisional accounts, the government's value added tax expenses are divided at the level of accounting items. Until t+2 provisional tax-estimates are used. Subsidy accounts can be classified with some inaccuracy because it is not always possible to define the recipient of the subsidy. Reserves and budgets adjustments: This extra paragraph covers both earmarked and widely defined reserves. The widely defined reserves are often considerable amounts and are difficult to define. Whenever possible, Statistics Denmark collects supplementary information on these reserves. An estimation of tax revenue charged by General Government is used.

There is no estimation on the uncertainty, but there is conducted a revision analysis of the statistics. The revision analysis considers two items - general government consumption and net lending/net borrowing. The purpose of the revision analysis is to find out how much the two sizes is changing from the first release of data to the release of data a year later. The revision analysis looks at how accurately general government consumption and net lending/net borrowing hit the first release in conjunction with the release one year after where the final level is largely determined. The revision analysis will also explore whether there is a tendency for general government consumption or net lending/net borrowing to be over- or underestimated in the initial release.

Data revision - policy

Statistics Denmark revises published figures in accordance with the Revision Policy for Statistics Denmark. The common procedures and principles of the Revision Policy are for some statistics supplemented by a specific revision practice.

Data revision practice

The statistics for the general government are made in a number of preliminary versions. Approximately three years after the end of a fiscal year the statistics are declared final. The statistics for the general government are made in the following versions before declared final:

Annually Government Finance Statistics:

The first presentation of accounts for a fiscal year is the so-called March-version, which is published at the end of March t+1. The sources are the preliminary public accounts (up to and including account period 13), budgets of Local Government adjusted by means of summarily account information's and preliminary accounts and budgets of social security funds.

The June-version is published at the beginning of June t+1. In this version the sources are much better. The public accounts from the general accounting office are now final. The Local Government accounts and that part of the accounts of social security funds that include LG (the Employees' Guarantee Fund) are now available. The taxes are no longer based on estimates, but based on primary data.

In September t+1 the September-version is published. The characteristic of the September-version is that a new and much better source for personal income taxes is included. In the June t+2 version all data are almost final and in the June t+3 version the last chances are added and the version can now be declared as final.

Quarterly Government Finance Statistics

Expenditure and revenue are calculated in accordance with the principles of the national accounts, and the methods are consistent with the calculation of annual accounts of government finances. It should be noted that there are greater data and time adjustment problems in connection with compiling quarterly statistics than annual statistics. The consistency is ensured by continuously verifying the short-term indicators with the annual and final version. When the annual statistics are declared as final, approximately three years after the end of a financial year, the equivalent quarterly versions are considered final as well.